WR025/07
Issued by: Dale Lake
Emergency Communications Manager
DEAN UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE, CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
Thursday 16th August 2007– At 8:00 am the center of hurricane Dean was located near latitude 13.5N/53.3W, 415 miles east of Barbados and 510 miles east of Martinique. Dean is moving westwards at near 24 mph, a motion expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph with higher gusts and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
There is little change in the forecast track. Strong high pressure remains to the north of Dean, which should steer the storm in a general west to west-northwest direction over the next 72 hours. The center of Dean is expected to pass near the island of Martinique midday Friday, then about 170 miles south of Puerto Rico Saturday morning and about 150 miles south of the Dominican Republic Saturday evening. This track should be far enough to the south of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to keep Dean's tropical storm force winds well offshore as it passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb/.29.09 inches. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves is possible near the center of dean. Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Dominica and St. Lucia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba and St. Eustatius. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area…generally within 36 hours. Hurricane or tropical storm warnings will likely be issued for some of these islands later this morning.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Barbados. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 8:00 am a tropical storm watch has been issued by Antigua’s meteorological service for Montserrat, Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis and Barbuda. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for St. Vincent and St. Maarten. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. Hurricane or tropical storm warnings could be issued for some of these islands later this morning.
BVI residents should continue to monitor Dean and listen for watches or warnings.
